Winter Storms on the Prowl

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Winter Storm / Weather

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Winter storms are set to hit Arizona with a one two three punch. Snow for the high country and rain for the central and lower deserts will start today, then continue with another storm on Friday and a weaker system on Monday.

Forecast Discussion: The initial wave of showers has arrived, albeit light showers. Doppler radar is indicating scattered rain entering the Valley as of 8:00 AM. The scattered nature of rain prevails today. Watch for a general west to east progression of showers tracking over the area. An improvement of air quality values commences when precip and breezes reach our monitors. Around a quarter inch of rain for the day is foreseen. Air quality values shift deeper into the Good AQI range tomorrow with continued wet and breezy conditions. Accumulations in the region do rise more quickly Friday afternoon through early Saturday. The second storm is more dynamical of the two. We could add another half inch plus in the lower deserts. Another feature with the latest storm is wind. Winds are to be quite gusty (20-30+ mph) out of the southwest ahead of and adjacent to the impending cold front. Had it not been for a wet winter to date and measurable rain falling in southeastern California and south-central Arizona in the present, there would have been concern for blowing dust threatening air quality concentrations. Not the case this time. Bring that coat if you are planning on being outside the rest of the week. A third storm reinforces cool weather and rain chances late Sunday/Monday. Any given day, afternoon temps reach low 60s at best.

Source: AirNOW,

Hold onto Your Hats, It's Going to be a Windy Ride

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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Wind, wind, and more wind... is this Arizona? Triple digits this weekend could end that debate. So get out the pool supplies and water launchers, summer is here, even for just the weekend.

Forecast Discussion: Strong, gusty northerly winds will continue through midday Thursday as high pressure to the west is fighting to push the trough to the east of Arizona out of the way. That trough will pick up anchor on Thursday allowing the west coast ridge of high pressure to move over Arizona by Friday. Much lighter winds are expected Friday through the weekend under sunny skies. Daytime highs will also reach the middle to upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The air quality will also improve the next few days. Particulates have been held nicely in the Good range of the Air Quality Index (AQI) the past couple days due to northerly winds. Ozone, however, has pushed into the middle Moderate range at multiple Valley locations. Concentrations are starting lower this morning and we should see maximum ozone levels back in the Good range perhaps by today, but most likely by Thursday.

The weather forecast for the next week: 

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel 

Changes for the Weekend, Wind, Rain, and Unseasonable Temperatures

Staff Writer, DB Holmes
Weather / Air Quality
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More wind, a spatter of rain, and cooler temperatures for this weekend. Unseasonable and unusual weather but most likely the last Phoenix will see of below average temperatures until November. Saturday's light rain event might be all Phoenix sees in precipitation until the start of the Monsoon season the first week of July.

Forecast Discussion: The models have been pretty consistent with the next weather system slated to impact our forecast area later Friday through Saturay. Winds will increase out of the southwest between 10 and 20 mph Friday afternoon. There's a little break overnight, but winds will pickup again around noon on Saturday, gusting around 25 mph at times. Wednesday's episode did trigger some dust across part of the Valley with many monitors reaching the lower Moderate range of the Air Quality Index (AQI). This will likely happen again Friday and Saturday before the winds ultimately clear the air. Expect PM10 levels to reach the middle Moderate range Saturday. Ozone concentrations will likely push well into the Moderate range today ahead of the system, aided by some import from the west. Levels improve Friday through the weekend with stronger winds, especially when the winds turn out of the northwest on Sunday. Models still project highs in the low 70s on Saturday with a slight chance for a shower or two. Amounts won't be impressive, but the desert enjoys anything wet that the sky will provide. Highs push back into the low 90s by next Tuesday. 

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel 

Do You Smell Rain?

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Air Quality
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Low pressure systems keep passing to the north and creating wind events with lower temperatures. There might be a possibility of precipitation if a cold front strengths and dips into our state over the weekend. Fingers crossed for some rain.

Forecast Discussion: Mostly sunny skies will continue through the middle of the week, even with yet another spring-time disturbance expected to clip Arizona late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will cool temperatures about 10 degrees, into the middle 80s by Wednesday. It will be dry. However, we do no anticipate any significant dust. Thus, PM10 levels may edge closer to the Moderate range Tuesday, but ultimately should resume good levels Wednesday. Ozone concentrations will move higher through Tuesday ahead of the system, aided by some import from the west. Levels, however, should climb no higher than the middle Moderate range on Tuesday. Conditions overall improve Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Then there is a much colder system waiting to possibly bring rain to our forecast areas on Saturday.

Source: AIRNow

Dust, Thunderstorms, and It's Not Even July

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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The east Valley is experiencing Ozone in the Moderate range this evening, ahead of another storm system.

Forecast Discussion: Mild weather and some afternoon breezes are expected today. Starting tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover increases ahead of a low-pressure circulation entering southern California. The system will cross over Arizona Friday and Saturday bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The higher terrain east and north of Phoenix has the best shot for measurable rainfall, but can’t rule out trace amounts even in the deserts as the low circulation passes overhead. Where thunderstorms do pop up, localized blowing dust from outflows could result, leading to higher PM-10 values. High temperatures will take a dive into the mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies on Friday, which may actually limit instability for thunderstorm development. Also, many monitors are beginning to observe elevated readings for ozone into the Moderate range and this will continue for the rest of the week.

Source: AIRNow

Spring into Summer, Phoenix is Dry and Hot

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Meteorology
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It is that time of the year again when temperatures rise as well as ozone concentrations. The rainless wind episodes have helped further dry out the deserts. Potential for blowing dust is still relevant as breezy conditions come into the Valley this weekend with windy conditions set up for the middle of next week.

Forecast Discussion: The official high in Phoenix on Wednesday was 95°F. As expected, we saw ozone concentrations go up around the forecast area under the light, west-to-east flow. The baseline for Thursday is higher, so it’s likely that levels will go higher as well under sunny skies and relatively light winds. An approaching upper-level system could boost levels further on Friday into the middle Moderate range before dropping off Saturday with increased surface breezes and atmospheric mixing. PM10 levels also bounced higher, into the lower Moderate range on Wednesday. The South Phoenix and West 43rd Avenue monitors registered 53 and 55 AQI, respectively. Buckeye was not far behind at 50 AQI. This is a testament to how dry the soil has become, and long-range models suggest there will be no rain expected over the next 2 weeks. We don’t anticipate any significant blowing dust this weekend, but it’s possible to see some pockets along the desert floor between Phoenix and southern California Saturday into early Sunday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 80s, close to 90°F on Saturday and Sunday, warming slightly once again by Monday.

Source: AIRNow

Arizona Real Estate on the Move: Part Deux

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Wind
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Another round of windy weather is happening in Arizona today. Watch for blowing dust in some areas.

Weather Map

Forecast Discussion: Based on current observations, the air quality in the Valley has generally improved since mid week’s dust event. As of this morning, isolated monitors in downtown Phoenix are still showing PM-10 readings in the Moderate range, while surrounding monitors are in the Good range. Other pollutants Valley-wide are in the Good category. Saturday will feature warmer conditions and light winds. By Sunday, winds will increase ahead of yet another trough of low pressure approaching the Southwest. Winds don’t look to be as strong as with our past storm, nor last as long, but area soils continue to dry out. With southwest winds sustained near 20 mph with higher gusts Sunday afternoon, thinking that localized blowing dust is a possibility. As a result, higher PM-10 levels in the middle to upper Moderate range can be expected. Also, an additional influx of ozone precursors ahead of the trough Sunday could raise ozone levels, but increased cloud cover may offset ozone formation. No precipitation is expected at this time.

Does this mean we are in for a windy spring?

Source: Weather Channel, AirNow

Arizona Real Estate on the Move as Weather Advisory Calls for Wind, Air Quality

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Air Quality
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A northwestern frontal boundary is headed Phoenix's way and bringing with it strong gusty winds. Some showers might be possible but localized and light. Most rain will be virga.

Unfortunately, the desert floor is dry and warm. The 30mph winds will create dust and air quality hazards for those individuals who suffer from respiratory conditions. People with lung issues may want to stay indoors. 

Forecast Discussion: ...A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY... The weather system that will bring winds to Arizona has strengthened a little more. Phoenix could see sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph at times with gusts as high as 35 mph. This is more than enough to generated blowing dust locally. In addition, we anticipate dust from dry deserts to the west (Yuma/southern California). We can lean on any precipitation to help minimize impacts as they disturbance will be dry. Erring on the side of caution, we are going with a High Pollution Advisory for Wednesday as it is highly possible that PM10 concentrations could exceed the standard. Wind conditions improve Thursday and dust levels should also settle into the lower Moderate range. Daytime highs are expected to briefly fall into the lower 70 on Thursday, but rapidly warm to the upper 80s by Sunday. Check back tomorrow for more. Until then, have a good day! -J.Paul

Be careful driving especially in the corridor between Phoenix and Tucson.



Source: AirNow,  ADEQ,