Excessive Heat, Summer Sun, No Dust

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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It is going to be a scorcher for the first week in June. An Excessive Heat Warning is out especially for tomorrow's 112F. No high winds or dust storms likely. No break from the summer heat as temperatures stay above 105F.

Today's Air Quality

Forecast Discussion: The Phoenix-area air quality was again in the Good range for all pollutants on Saturday. The approach of a trough of low pressure from the northwest has helped to clear the air by providing some good mixing. High pressure to the southeast will hold its position this week, keeping that trough to the north of Arizona as it slowly advances east this week. Daytime highs across the Valley may reach 110°F on Monday, shaving a degree or two through the week, and eventually "cooling" to 105°F. Expect ozone levels to push back into the lower Moderate range by Monday and Tuesday under sunny skies. Particulates should hold in the upper part of the Good range. We do not anticipate any significant dust events this week.

Source: AIRNow, Weather, 

Triple Digit Yo-Yo Heat Ready for Action

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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Hot and somewhat dry. Dew points have been in the 40's while humidity has been averaging in the 30-40% range. Desert heat comes and goes this week but only showing how this summer will be: hot. Just hot.

Memorial Day's Air Quality

Forecast Discussion: A salute to the veterans who gave their lives serving our county - Happy Memorial Day! Air quality conditions have fared pretty well in recent days. The modeled forecast of possible dust outflow from storms southwest of the Valley on Friday did verify with storm development, but did not result in dust. In fact local PM10 levels are in the middle Good range. With high pressure surging over Arizona Monday through Wednesday, winds should remain mostly light, keeping the threat of dust out of the picture. Ozone concentrations, however, may remain in the middle Moderate range much of the week under sunny skies. Daytime temperatures in Phoenix will range from 105-108°F Monday through Wednesday.

May 2014

24th-27th. Changeable skies: mixed cloud, sun, possible shower. Cool temperatures.
28th-31st. Possible showers again.

June 2014

1st-3rd. Changeable skies: mixed clouds, sun. Risk of a shower.
4th-7th. Varying amounts of clouds, sun. Dry.


Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel, Farmer's Almanac  

Rain? You Don't Say

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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Tomorrow the Valley of the Sun has a 30% chance of rain.

Forecast Discussion: Low pressure to the west will spin in place through much of the week. The southwest-to-northeast flow will keep the potential ozone and precursor train from southern California moving into Arizona. The good news is that smoke from southern California wildfires won't be much of an influence as crews have mostly subdued them. Local ozone levels continue to decrease steadily with highest levels in the lower Moderate range. With the churning trough of low pressure to the west, Arizona can expect gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday. This could cause localized pockets of dust in the vicinity of recently disturbed soil. Overall maximum PM10 levels, however, should remain mostly in the Good range. Conditions improve Thursday as winds decrease.

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel, 

Windy, Dry Conditions May Create Another Dust Event

Staff Writer, DB Holmes
Weather / Air Quality
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When will this wind end? Not for the next 48 hours or so. Phoenix can expect windy conditions to persist with PM 10 and 2.5 particles being kicked up again.

Forecast Discussion: What an impressive dust event we saw Sunday morning. Contrary to some media reports out there, this was not a localized event. This was not a "dust storm". This was not isolated to Arizona. A large trough of low pressure moved through the western U.S. The leading edge of the cold front churned up an impressive amount of dust extending from the desert valleys of California and Nevada, through Baja, and finally northeast through Arizona and New Mexico. Looking at concentrations from monitors to the west, California was hit hard with dust first on Saturday morning. Around 10pm Saturday night, it was Las Vegas that got hit. Yuma saw concentrations spike around midnight. Then dust moved into the Phoenix area around 2 am on Sunday. The cold front continued east through the early morning hours, and by 11 am, levels and visibility improved significantly. About the same time our air cleared, Albuquerque, NM got slammed. This was a major dust event that could not be prevented on a local level no matter what control measures were in place. Nature vs. Man, and Nature won easily. As of 10am Monday morning, Phoenix-area PM10 levels are back in the Good range. Looking ahead, high pressure will move overhead this week, pushing daytime into the triple digits by Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, we may see some more dust on Wednesday, this time from the east. Concentrations, however, should not result in an exceedance here in the Valley. Expect ozone levels to increase as well under sunny skies. The northeast and east winds could trap ozone and precursors in the Valley by mid-week, sending levels well into the Moderate range.

Anyone with respiratory issues may want to wear a mask or stay indoors with a good air filter. 

Source: AIRNow 

Weather and Air Quality Forecast for the Next Ten Days

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Air Quality
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 It's up and down for the next ten days. From 90's to mid 70's on Saturday, then a brief stint in the 80's and straight toward 99 degrees by May 1st. All the while, breezy to windy conditions will remain in the forecast as brush fire conditions are ripe throughout Arizona.

Forecast Discussion: It's going to be a little breezy later Tuesday night with some residual winds into early Wednesday and again Wednesday afternoon. We are not expecting any dust from this event, but local ozone concentrations will likely reach the middle to upper Moderate range at multiple Valley locations Tuesday. Atmospheric mixing will break up the ozone plume Wednesday resulting in lower overall concentrations. Conditions improve and temperatures warm once again Thursday and Friday to around 90°F. We're keeping an eye on the next system. This one will be much larger, bringing some potential moisture to the deserts Saturday. Again, southwest winds could push 20 mph at times, but dust does not appear to be an issue, especially if the system is accompanied with moisture. The biggest change will be temperatures. Phoenix may struggle to reach 75°F on Saturday. That would be about 13 degrees below normal. For now, expect air quality levels to improve after Wednesday, with ozone possible edging higher on Friday.

Source: AIRNow,

Arizona Real Estate on the Move: Mother Nature Strikes Again

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Meteorology / Air Quality
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When did Phoenix become Chicago? Lately the wind gradients from passing low pressure systems have caused windy conditions in Arizona. With the lack of precipitation, blowing dust and air quality concerns are now news once again along with the potential for wildfires increasing in the state. 

So people with lung conditions, please be advised today through this Wednesday for moderate to unhealthy air quality conditions at times.

Forecast Discussion: A mid to upper-level disturbance is approaching the area from the west. Thick high clouds have overspread the state as a result. Should still be a warm day with highs in the low 90s, but occasional cloud cover will help keep temperatures from warming to their potential. By Saturday, higher winds in the afternoon with gusts around 20 mph will occur as the disturbance moves through. This may cause isolated dust to get lofted, but not expecting anything major. As a result, PM-10 levels could push into the lower Moderate range of the AQI before returning to the Good range on Sunday. Ozone is expected to peak today ahead of the disturbance and then trend down for the weekend, but remain in the Moderate range. Another disturbance dropping south out of the Great Basin Sunday into Monday will increase winds once again, but not as strong as with the first system. Unfortunately, no precipitation is anticipated for the Phoenix area throughout the forecast period, but the passing disturbances will “cool” high temperatures into the upper 80s.

Source: AIRNow 

Arizona Real Estate on the Move: Part Deux

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Wind
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Another round of windy weather is happening in Arizona today. Watch for blowing dust in some areas.

Weather Map

Forecast Discussion: Based on current observations, the air quality in the Valley has generally improved since mid week’s dust event. As of this morning, isolated monitors in downtown Phoenix are still showing PM-10 readings in the Moderate range, while surrounding monitors are in the Good range. Other pollutants Valley-wide are in the Good category. Saturday will feature warmer conditions and light winds. By Sunday, winds will increase ahead of yet another trough of low pressure approaching the Southwest. Winds don’t look to be as strong as with our past storm, nor last as long, but area soils continue to dry out. With southwest winds sustained near 20 mph with higher gusts Sunday afternoon, thinking that localized blowing dust is a possibility. As a result, higher PM-10 levels in the middle to upper Moderate range can be expected. Also, an additional influx of ozone precursors ahead of the trough Sunday could raise ozone levels, but increased cloud cover may offset ozone formation. No precipitation is expected at this time.

Does this mean we are in for a windy spring?

Source: Weather Channel, AirNow