High Ozone, SRM, and the Monsoon

Staff Writer, Nathaniel Diaz

Weather / Monsoon 
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The Sonoran Desert is alive with Health Watches for the high ozone as well as the high temperatures. Since we had such a cool May, June has made up for it in the first half of the month so far. The heat drives our monsoon flow. So the hotter the desert floor: the better our rain chances in the coming months.

Solar Radiation Management has been deployed since there are chances for a sprinkle this week with some monsoon action to our south. March 2016 was a horrible month for climate engineering. There was not a day empty of the toxins. April saw some action. May was devoid of most geoengineering. With rain chances back in the forecast, toxic lines in the sky have reemerged. 

Here is the Ozone and weather forecast from AirNOW:

Forecast Discussion: The Humboldt Mountain Monitor located northeast of the Valley recorded an exceedance of the federal health standard yesterday. Here in the Valley, several monitors reached Health Watch (HW) criteria. As for today and tomorrow, even more stable conditions than yesterday will likely result in more ozone accumulation. Therefore, we have an ozone High Pollution Advisory (HPA) in effect through tomorrow (Wednesday). Currently it looks like there will be some improvement on Thursday with ozone levels expected to stay slightly below HPA levels. However, we do anticipate a Health Watch will still need to be issued for Thursday. PM-2.5 has been hovering in the upper Good range the last several days and we don't expect that to change. There are several large wildfires throughout the state, but no significant impacts are expected here in the Valley. PM-10 has thrown a slight curveball today. Local activity near the West Chandler monitor this morning has resulted in elevated concentrations. As a result, PM-10 at that monitor will likely end up near the mid-Moderates for today. Given the localized nature of the elevated PM-10 levels, we will not make a last minute adjustment to today's forecast. As for Thursday, thunderstorms in southern Arizona could create outflows that cause gusty winds here in the Phoenix area, potentially kicking up dust. However, at the moment, our confidence in the strength of the outflows reaching the Valley is not very high. Therefore, for now we will keep PM-10 in the Good range and re-evaluate the situation tomorrow.

So be careful out there.


Source: AirNOW   

On Again, Off Again, the Monsoon is a Fickle Creature

Staff Writer, DL Mullan

Weather / Air Quality
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The monsoon will take a break in the western part of the state and bring with it hotter temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday will begin this on and off pattern. The coming weekend will see a return of storm chances and air quality concerns with dust storm formation.

Until then, keep your oven mittens in the car, July is not over and August is setting up to be as hot as ever.

Forecast Discussion: It has been an active few days now on the weather front! It started with the unusually large dust event that affected portions of Mexico on Thursday. This was likely caused by what is called a Mesoscale Convective System. This dust then moved northward into Arizona Thursday and Friday with a moisture surge. A pronounced haze was widespread. As a result PM-10 and PM-2.5 were already elevated before significant thunderstorm activity and multiple outlfows triggered a dust storm that impacted much of the Valley during the early evening on Friday. Ultimately, six Maricopa County monitors exceeded the PM-10 health standard. Then another round of strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and blowing dust struck the Phoenix Metropolitan late last night into the early morning hours. This would account for the lingering haze seen today along with higher current PM readings. We remain in an unstable environment. Models are consistent in showing thunderstorms forming once again over the higher terrain. These then move westward under east-southeasterly steering winds into the Phoenix area during the early evening. Stronger outflows dropping out the higher terrain from the north and east versus the south will help limit the dust threat, but localized blowing dust is still possible. The steering flow is then expected to turn southwesterly by Monday, which is unfavorable for bringing convection into the Valley. Generally, ozone readings are running lower than this time yesterday, likely to due to this morning's cloud cover and the clearing winds from last night. We expect ozone to stay around the lower Moderate range through Tuesday.

North looking toward the Estrella Mountains

Source: AIRNow, Visibility Cameras,

Monsoon Cool Down and Decent Air Quality, Week of July 15

Staff Writer, Nathaniel Diaz

Weather / Air Quality
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Today's Air Quality

Forecast Discussion: Forecast models did very well with Sunday's storms in regards to timing and location. Areas in the southeast Valley are cleaning up this morning after severe weather rolled through the area. Reports of hail, downed trees, winds in excess of 60 mph and over an inch of rain in less than an hour came in as the storm moved west. Typically after a storm like that, the Valley is tapped of energy and the following day is a down-day. However, models are in agreement that we could see another round Monday afternoon. They differ slightly on whether storms move through the Valley or skirt metro area to the north and south, merging again in western Maricopa County. There could be isolated downpours, hazardous lightning, damaging winds, and hail. This will be the last chance for rain until next Sunday or Monday as the monsoon high moves to northern California. Much drier air moves into Arizona by Wednesday. Expect middle Moderate ozone levels through Wednesday. PM10 levels should be back in the Good range following Sunday's rain event and any subsequent precipitation on Monday.

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel

Monsoon 2014, Dust Storms, Flash Floods, and Air Quality Concerns

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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Welcome to Monsoon Season. This week and weekend are full of monsoon moisture. July 3rd, Phoenix and surrounding areas were hit by a dust storm, haboob, and thunder showers.

So baton down the hatches, it's going to be a bumpy ride especially with air quality being poor in the forecast.

Tomorrow's Air Quality

AN OZONE HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY, JULY 7, 2014… …A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY, JULY 7, 2014… Once the cloud cover erodes another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the higher terrain north and east of the Valley. The steering flow is similar to yesterday (weak out of the northeast) and storms will likely slowly propagate off the higher terrain into the lower elevations later this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and chances for rainfall can be expected. Because of the northeast flow dust concerns are low. This does not hold true for tomorrow, as models are advertising another possible strong haboob coming from Pinal County during the early evening under east-southeasterly flow. Rainfall is possible, as well. The potential precipitation and the fact that Pinal County has recently observed more significant rainfall accumulation may lower the dust risk, but a PM-10 Health Watch for Monday still seems warranted. We will look at future model runs for any necessary adjustments. Also, ozone is already elevated at some sites and a more easterly flow over the Valley tomorrow can block ozone precursors and allow them to accumulate. The increase in traffic won’t help either. Therefore, an ozone health watch has been issued for Monday, as well.

July 2014
4th-7th. Monsoonal showers, still hot for parts of Arizona.
8th-11th. Changeable skies: mixed clouds, sun. Risk of a shower, thunderstorm.
12th-15th. Clouds, few widely scattered showers.
16th-19th. Warm, dry.
20th-23rd. Unusual heavy monsoonal storms Arizona.
24th-27th. Hot, dry.
28th-31st. Continued hot.

Source: Weather Channel, AIRNow, Farmer's Almanac,

Phoenix Ozone Health Watch with More Triple Digit Heat

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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As of 9am the Ozone concentration was reported at 67. That is the number forecast for tomorrow and we have already hit that mark this morning.

Ozone is definitely the big story this week. Concentrations have pushed into the middle to upper part of the Moderate range over the past 48 hours. Models suggest we could see one or two monitors approach the health standard on Friday. Thus, we are issuing an Ozone Health Watch for Friday. History shows that the day after such an event usually sees lower concentrations. PM10 levels continue to be mostly in the Good range with one or two local monitors (West 43rd and South Phoenix) in the lower Moderate range. Daytime highs will hold steady between 106-111°F Friday through next week as high pressure maintains its position to the south. We're watching the long-range models for an indication of when the monsoon shift may occur. We are starting to see some signs of high pressure migrating north near the Four Corners around the 16th to the 21st of June. Thunderstorm activity may begin to pop up in Arizona's mountains around that time, but wide-spread moisture will likely hold off until the end of June.

For those individuals with respiratory issues, please limit outdoor exposure and stay in filtered air.

As the temperatures suggest, there is no end insight for triple digit heat, ozone production, or the monsoon. 

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel

Droughts Are Us, Arizona Monitor

Staff Writer, Nicole Meyer-Greene
Drought / Severe Conditions
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AZ Monitor

This is Arizona. This is Arizona on no water. Well, it could be worse, Arizona could be California. The drought in that state is enormous and critical.

With the Monsoon season coming up and disappointing totals in the years past, could Arizona be in for a good storm season? Or will the impending warmth of the Pacific Ocean usher in an El Nino effect that will hurt the state's chances to recoup some precipitation?

Are the geoengingeering goals to produce the next dust bowl and force people to move from their homes in order to satisfy some United Nation's agenda?

The Monsoon seasons are not what they once were.

Where is all our rain? 

Source: US Drought Monitor West, Drought Monitor

Changes for the Weekend, Wind, Rain, and Unseasonable Temperatures

Staff Writer, DB Holmes
Weather / Air Quality
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More wind, a spatter of rain, and cooler temperatures for this weekend. Unseasonable and unusual weather but most likely the last Phoenix will see of below average temperatures until November. Saturday's light rain event might be all Phoenix sees in precipitation until the start of the Monsoon season the first week of July.

Forecast Discussion: The models have been pretty consistent with the next weather system slated to impact our forecast area later Friday through Saturay. Winds will increase out of the southwest between 10 and 20 mph Friday afternoon. There's a little break overnight, but winds will pickup again around noon on Saturday, gusting around 25 mph at times. Wednesday's episode did trigger some dust across part of the Valley with many monitors reaching the lower Moderate range of the Air Quality Index (AQI). This will likely happen again Friday and Saturday before the winds ultimately clear the air. Expect PM10 levels to reach the middle Moderate range Saturday. Ozone concentrations will likely push well into the Moderate range today ahead of the system, aided by some import from the west. Levels improve Friday through the weekend with stronger winds, especially when the winds turn out of the northwest on Sunday. Models still project highs in the low 70s on Saturday with a slight chance for a shower or two. Amounts won't be impressive, but the desert enjoys anything wet that the sky will provide. Highs push back into the low 90s by next Tuesday. 

Source: AIRNow, Weather Channel 

Dust, Thunderstorms, and It's Not Even July

Staff Writer, DB Holmes

Weather / Air Quality
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The east Valley is experiencing Ozone in the Moderate range this evening, ahead of another storm system.

Forecast Discussion: Mild weather and some afternoon breezes are expected today. Starting tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover increases ahead of a low-pressure circulation entering southern California. The system will cross over Arizona Friday and Saturday bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The higher terrain east and north of Phoenix has the best shot for measurable rainfall, but can’t rule out trace amounts even in the deserts as the low circulation passes overhead. Where thunderstorms do pop up, localized blowing dust from outflows could result, leading to higher PM-10 values. High temperatures will take a dive into the mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies on Friday, which may actually limit instability for thunderstorm development. Also, many monitors are beginning to observe elevated readings for ozone into the Moderate range and this will continue for the rest of the week.

Source: AIRNow